The Consumer Sentiment report was the largest release in an otherwise light week. The report showed that sentiment has improved over the last couple of months. However, this improvement comes against the backdrop of consumer sentiment having dropped more than 30 points since January and remaining at relatively low levels throughout the year.
With inflation remaining stubborn and impactful, it is no surprise that consumer sentiment has taken a hit. The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet has shed some of its weight but continues to reflect significant borrowing amid persistent inflationary pressures. There is strong speculation that another rate increase may be announced at next week’s rate decision.
Consumer Sentiment
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index was revised higher to 49.5 in June 2026, up from a preliminary reading of 48.9, although it remained slightly below forecasts of 50. Still, sentiment improved from 44.8 in May, the lowest level on record, supported in part by a moderation in gasoline prices. The expectations gauge was at 50.7, the highest in three months, compared to 49.3 in the initial estimate, as consumers’ worries over long-term consequences of the Iran conflict appear to be easing.
Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
- 15-Year FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.03%, bringing the current rate to 6.68%.
- 30-Year FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.08%, leaving the current rate at 7.32%.
MND Rate Index
- 30-Year FHA rates saw a decrease of -0.01%, with the current rate at 6.98%.
- 30-Year VA rates saw a decrease of -0.02%, with the current rate at 6.99%.
Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 194,000 compared to the expected claims of 200,000. The previous week landed at 200,000.
What’s Ahead
On deck next week are the Core PCE Index—the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation—personal income and spending data, and the FOMC’s interest rate decision.
